eBay's Google Fearing Meg Whines to Analysts that "Only the Paranoid Survive"

[mandy]

Is eBay afraid of Google?

``Only the paranoid survive,'' eBay Chief Executive Meg Whitman told analysts attending a presentation at the online auctioneer's San Jose headquarters Thursday.

Signs that Google may try to become a force in eBay's e-commerce and online payment businesses, coupled with investor concern over slow growth and stiff competition in markets like China and South Korea, has driven down eBay's stock almost 30 percent this year.

Whitman acknowledged the threat from Google's growing online database of products, known as Google Base, and from the Mountain View company's test of a payment service it calls the Google account. However, Whitman said eBay was competing from a position of strength...

The most important part for stock analysts:

But Whitman did not increase the company's conservative financial forecast of 2006 sales ranging between $5.7 billion and $5.9 billion, numbers that had triggered a sell-off in shares starting in January.

full article: http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercuryne...503393.htm

[regic]

eBay Inc. shares fell to their lowest level in a year Friday, despite optimistic remarks by Chief Executive Meg Whitman at an analyst conference a day earlier...

Caris & Co. analyst Tim Boyd said eBay did admit to facing "significant challenges" in China and Korea. "Given the explosive overall growth in e-commerce in these key markets, lack of progress is a clear negative," Boyd said in a client note.

Boyd said eBay was also "noticeably quiet" on reaccelerating its core U.S. listing business. "We are inclined to interpret this silence as an admission that growth won't climb back above the 20-percent level," Boyd said...

full article: http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060505/ebay_mover.html?.v=1

Ebay’s shares have slumped this year amid concerns of competition from Google, as well as fears that its established business is slowing, particularly outside the US. International growth slowed to 18 per cent in the first quarter of this year.

The international slowdown showed that international markets had passed their “hyper-growth” phase and were also becoming more seasonal, company executives said.

They also pointed to severe competition in Asia, particularly in South Korea and China, the second of which was a big focus of investment last year...

full article: http://news.ft.com/cms/s/c5ca83e8-dbc3-1...e2340.html

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edit:  I found the info on eBay's South Korea business:

..the Chinese business still pales against that of Korea, which generates 77 percent of eBay's Asian revenue...

http://community.tuliptools.com/index.ph...298.0.html

[bargainbloodhound]

.
The international slowdown showed that international markets had passed their “hyper-growth” phase and were also becoming more seasonal, company executives said.

The international slowdown is what surprises me the most...at least in Europe and Korea.  I expected eBay's European auction business' growth to eventually slow when the novelty wore off just like it did in the US, but I thought the slowdown would be in a year or two, not this quarter.

The problems at eBay's largest Asian site in Korea are the biggest surprise since it was only 6 months ago that Meg and other eBay officials were in Korea talking about the strength/great prospects of their Korean operation. China, no surprise due to Taobao's reported 57%-70% market share.

[sneakymagenta]

the day that everyone in the world is Skyping each other is a day when I think we will have a giant business,'' Whitman said. ``We will have lines of revenue we can only dream of.''

Dream on.  ;D

[mandy]

A pair of related articles today following yesterday's continued slide in eBay's stock to a new 52-week low, its 11th new low in the last 20 trading days.

Google is increasingly infringing on eBay's territory and limiting the online auctioneer's growth potential, at least in the near term, according to Cowen & Co. analyst Jim Friedland.

Attending a recent industry conference of eBay PowerSellers, who raise 75% or more of their income from eBay, Friedland said these businesses are looking for alternative marketing channels and finding them with Google...

Friedland also found that more and more small- and medium-sized businesses' market resources are being directed away from eBay to Google AdWords and Google Base...

http://www.forbes.com/markets/economy/20...ets15.html

Bear Stearns maintained a "peer perform" rating on eBay and said announcements at a Yahoo! analyst meeting may be a negative for shares of the online auction company...

Yahoo! is expected to discuss its activities in China with partner Alibaba...

"In line with investor concerns about the headwinds eBay has been experiencing in the Chinese market, we think the Analyst Day could likely confirm eBay EachNet’s unfavorable position in the local market,"...

In addition, Yahoo! may also provide clarity on a re-entry into online payment services similar to eBay's PayPal, as well as other new e-commerce initiatives such as a craigslist-style listings site...

full article: http://www.forbes.com/markets/bonds/2006...ets17.html

[stardust]

the day that everyone in the world is Skyping each other is a day when I think we will have a giant business,'' Whitman said. ``We will have lines of revenue we can only dream of.''

Not if the telecoms have their way with congress!  How can Meg be so blind?

...Google is increasingly infringing on eBay's territory and limiting the online auctioneer's growth potential
...businesses are looking for alternative marketing channels and finding them with Google...

Well, I guess you could slant the article to blame Google, but the blame falls squarely on the Megster and all top management of ebay.  Poor decisions on everything in the last 3 years or so, including this year's fiascos.  If buyers cannot search properly on the site, and sellers can only go broke with ebay's fees and no sales, OF COURSE they're going to search elsewhere. 

That's right... Blame it on Google or Bush.  Either will do.  Just don't you DARE blame ebay for its own downfall!!

[bargainbloodhound]

Not if the telecoms have their way with congress!

Not only Congress, but try to name me one company that doesn't have a VoIP telephone offering or doesn't have one planned.  VoIP is quickly becoming a commodity business that will have little to no pricing power.  Skype better hope that people buy lots and lots of ringtones and other add-ons if it is going to make any money in the future.

If buyers cannot search properly on the site

You wind up with more inactive members (115 million) than active members (75 million )

a craigslist-style listings site...

Yahoo has had [http://classifieds.yahoo.com]Yahoo Classifieds[/url] for years, the problem is it does barely anything to promote the site.

[mandy]

eBay's stock inched up a few cents on Thursday after Yahoo's Analyst Day presentation failed to reveal any plans for a significant move into eBay or PayPal's ecommerce or online payment territories.

Yahoo Analysts Day highlights:
Yahoo Analyst Day Highlights Further Push into Social Media, Video
http://community.tuliptools.com/index.ph...797.0.html

Jack Ma, head of Alibaba (and Yahoo China, Taobao, and AliPay) also spoke at Yahoo Analyst Day:

Alibaba's Crazy Jack Talks of World Domination and PayPal China Rival AliPay
http://community.tuliptools.com/index.ph...l#msg14478